By Ken M. Blomberg

What a difference a year makes. At least when it comes to population estimates for Wisconsin’s favorite upland game bird, the ruffed grouse. One year ago, spring drumming counts conducted by the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) had some hunters, regulators, conservation organization leaders, legislators and outdoor reporters in a panic.

Cries for an investigation into West Nile Virus (WNV) effects on grouse, shortening the season and reducing bag limits rang loud across the state. The DNR’s Natural Resources Board (NRB) put ruffed grouse on their agenda and the Wisconsin Conservation Congress (WCC) insisted on an emergency order to shorten the season by eliminating January hunting. The NRB obliged.

Last week’s DNR news release took many by surprise.

“Roadside ruffed grouse surveys completed this spring show statewide drumming activity increased 41 percent between 2018 and 2019. This increase aligns with the generally predictable grouse population cycle. The large increase in 2019 has made up for much of the unanticipated decline seen in 2018 drumming surveys and appears to put Wisconsin back on track for approaching the next cyclical high in the ruffed grouse population.”

It’s been about 10 years since ruffed grouse made the outdoor news. Twenty years before that – all the way back to the 1930s – ruffed grouse have stirred the pot when their populations crash every 10 years. Hunters notice the crash. Politicians hear their cries. Biologists scratch their heads. The DNR reacts.

The cyclic nature of ruffed grouse debate continues. According to those much more knowledgeable than me, ruffed grouse cycles in Wisconsin historically occur once in each decade, with low points of abundance in the years of each decade ending in the numeral seven, while abundance levels occur once each decade in the years ending in the numeral one. Cycle years have been precisely recorded in

Wisconsin since the 1920s—with other evidence revealing numbers back to 1852.

Wallace B. Grange, in his 1948 book, “Wisconsin Grouse Problems” called upon sportsmen “who are less interested in causes than in results, the game of chance (dice) expression ‘seven come eleven’ is a useful memory jog, for the low of 1947 will be transformed to the abundance of 1951 almost as a matter of course.”

He went on to explain downswings extend for five years and highs extend up to five years, with the upcoming peak of 1951 extending from about 1949 or 1950 to 1953. In other words, give or take a year.

Highs and lows were backed up by hunting kill indexes gathered at the time. The 1932 grouse kill in Wisconsin was 317,007, and in 1933, it was 318,410. It dropped to 131,762 in 1934 and a historic low of 72,778 birds killed in 1935. Then in 1936 and 1937, the state closed the hunting season during that decade’s two low years. By the time the population rebounded in 1941–42, the kill climbed to 421,728—a historic all-time high in both populations and birds killed. Three years later, the season was closed once again for two years during the cycle’s population crash in years 1945–46.

These days, DNR biologists understand closing the season altogether will not change the cyclic nature of grouse populations. Closing the season last January was simply symbolic and had no effect on overall populations. Creating ideal habitat of young forests does matter, and will maintain higher populations, even during lows in the cycle.